Exercises for Causal Arguments
1. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant "commonality" in their illnesses?
2. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant "difference," in arguing that eating the potato salad made them ill?
3. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant factor in determining the likelihood that the potato salad they all ate was the cause of their illness?
1. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant "commonality" in their illnesses? You answered:
They all ate
potato salad.
2. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant "difference," in arguing that eating the potato salad made them ill? You answered:
No one else
at the picnic ate potato salad.
3. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant factor in determining the likelihood that the potato salad they all ate was the cause of their illness? You answered:
-
They got sick
right after eating the potato salad, but the incubation period for the illness
was three days.
1. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant "commonality" in their illnesses? You answered:
They all work
in marketing.
Though it is possible that where they work had something to do with why they became sick, it does not seem very likely. There are stronger choices for "most significant commonality" here.
1. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant "commonality" in their illnesses? You answered:
- They all went
home early.
Just because something is "common" doesn't mean it is necessarily "significant." "All going home early" would only be significant if we could establish some causal connection between when they went home and why they got sick. More likely, they went home early because they did not feel well. In that case, the sickness caused the early departure, and not the other way around.
1. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant "commonality" in their illnesses? You answered:
- They all ran
in the three-legged race.
Perhaps the exercise made them ill, or perhaps it brought them in contact with someone or something that made them ill. But these possibilities seem fairly remote, and there are much stronger claims to choose from here.
2. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant "difference," in arguing that eating the potato salad made them ill? You answered:
- They all ate
from the same bowl.
Eating from the same bowl may be a significant factor in determining the source of food poisoning, but you were asked about "differences" here, not commonalities, and they all ate from the bowl, so it is something they all share in common.
2. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant "difference," in arguing that eating the potato salad made them ill? You answered:
-
No one else
at the picnic knew they were sick.
The knowledge that others had of the sickness was apparently different from the knowledge those sickened had, so that's a difference and it might, conceivably, be somehow important. But this fails the "causal link" test, especially because the knowledge would have had to come after the illness began, and so that knowledge cannot have caused the illness.
2. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant "difference," in arguing that eating the potato salad made them ill? You answered:
-
They all ate
different kinds of sandwiches.
In searching for a significant difference, you need to look for something that is different about the group showing the effect (illness, in this case), when they are compared to others. "Different sandwiches" doesn't work that way, because that is a difference within the group.
3. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant factor in determining the likelihood that the potato salad they all ate was the cause of their illness? You answered:
- At least one
other person ate the same potato salad and did not get sick.
While the percentage of people who ate the potato salad and got sick may be significant, different people react differently to a uniform stimulus, such as food poisoning. As a result, the fact that someone (or even a majority of the people who ate potato salad) did not get sick is insufficient by itself to prove or disprove causation. But one of the other options is sufficient by itself.
3. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant factor in determining the likelihood that the potato salad they all ate was the cause of their illness? You answered:
-
The potato
salad was supposed to be stored in the refrigerator, but it was left out
the night before the picnic.
Not refrigerating certain foods does make them more likely to contain things that might make someone sick, but while this may raise our suspicions about the potato salad, there is a better answer for this question that provides direct proof about the possibility that the potato salad caused the illnesses.
3. Five people became sick at the company picnic. Which of the following might be considered the most significant factor in determining the likelihood that the potato salad they all ate was the cause of their illness? You answered:
-
They ate varying
amounts of the potato salad.
While the amount eaten may have an effect, different people may react differently to a uniform stimulus, such as food poisoning. How much they ate, and how sick they got, are not therefore sufficient to prove or disprove causation. But one of the other options is sufficient by itself.
You have completed the exercises for Causal Arguments. You may now go on with related sections, such as Introduction to Induction and Deduction, Analogical Arguments, Surveys, Polls, and Experiements, or you can return to the Main Menu.