San José State University
Department of Economics

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Thayer Watkins
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Country Risk Premiums

The concept of a country risk premium refers to an increment in interest rates that would have to be paid for loans and investment projects in a particular country compared to some standard. One way of establishing the country risk premium for a country is to compare the interest rate that the market establishes for a standard security in the country, say central government debt, to the comparable security in the benchmark country, say the United States. For the securities to be comparable they must have the same maturity and involve payment in the same currency, say U.S. dollars. The reason the payments must be the same is that otherwise the differential in the interest rates would reflect the differential rates of inflation in the two countries instead of solely the market-perceived risk of nonpayment. The interest rate that is relevant is the market-determined yeild to maturity rather than the coupon interest rate. The coupon interest rate is valid only if the issuers are careful to set the coupon rate so that it is equal to the yield to maturity of the security.

For example, suppose the U.S. government has a currently issued five year bond that has a yield to maturity of 6 percent and the government of Poland borrows dollars by selling a five year bond that pays in dollars and the yield to maturity of that bond is 8 percent. The country risk premium for Poland would be 2 percent or, as such premiums are often expressed, 200 basis points. The two percent is the correct value providing the yields to maturity are expressed as instantaneous rates. If they are expressed as effective annual rates then the correct computation of the risk premium ρ is as follows:


1+ρ = (1+0.08)/(1+0.06) = 1.01887
and thus
ρ = 0.01887
 

The above procedure is easily implemented if a country's government borrows through securities denominated in dollars. This is common among the various emerging market economies but rare in the developed economies.

In the table below are estimates of the country risk premiums compiled by Allan Huang of San Jose State University based upon information from Moody's bond ratings.


Estimates of Country Risk Premiums
Country Long-Term Rating Typical Interest Rate Country Risk Premium
United States  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Andorra  Aa2 
6.75%
0.65%
Argentina  Ba3 
10.10%
4.00%
Australia  Aa2 
6.75%
0.65%
Austria  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Bahamas  A3 
7.05%
0.95%
Bahrain  Ba1 
8.60%
2.50%
Barbados  Ba1 
8.60%
2.50%
Belgium  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Belize  Ba2 
9.10%
3.00%
Bermuda  Aa1 
6.70%
0.60%
Bolivia  B1 
10.60%
4.50%
Brazil  B2 
11.60%
5.50%
Bulgaria  B2 
11.60%
5.50%
Canada  Aa2 
6.75%
0.65%
Cayman Islands  Aa3 
6.80%
0.70%
Chile  Baa1 
7.30%
1.20%
China  A3 
7.05%
0.95%
Colombia  Baa3 
7.55%
1.45%
Costa Rica  Ba1 
8.60%
2.50%
Croatia  Baa3 
7.55%
1.45%
Cyprus  A2 
7.00%
0.90%
Czech Republic  Baa1 
7.30%
1.20%
Denmark  Aa1 
6.70%
0.60%
Dominican Republic  B1 
10.60%
4.50%
Ecuador  B3 
12.60%
6.50%
Egypt  Ba1 
8.60%
2.50%
El Salvador  Baa3 
7.55%
1.45%
Estonia  Baa1 
7.30%
1.20%
Finland  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
France  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Germany  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Gibraltar  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Greece  Baa1 
7.30%
1.20%
Guatemala  Ba2 
9.10%
3.00%
Guernsey  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Honduras  B2 
11.60%
5.50%
Hong Kong  A3 
7.05%
0.95%
Hungary  Baa2 
7.40%
1.30%
Iceland  Aa3 
6.80%
0.70%
India  Ba2 
9.10%
3.00%
Indonesia  B3 
12.60%
6.50%
Ireland  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Isle of Man  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Israel  A3 
7.05%
0.95%
Italy  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Jamaica  Ba3 
10.10%
4.00%
Japan  Aa1 
6.70%
0.60%
Jersey  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Jordan  Ba3 
10.10%
4.00%
Kazakhstan  Ba3
10.10%
4.00%
Korea  Baa3 
7.55%
1.45%
Kuwait  Baa1 
7.30%
1.20%
Latvia  Baa2 
7.40%
1.30%
Lebanon  B1 
10.60%
4.50%
Liechtenstein  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Lithuania  Ba1 
8.60%
2.50%
Luxembourg  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Macau  Baa1 
7.30%
1.20%
Malaysia  Baa3 
7.55%
1.45%
Malta  A3 
7.05%
0.95%
Mauritius  Baa2 
7.40%
1.30%
Mexico  Ba2 
9.10%
3.00%
Moldova  B2 
11.60%
5.50%
Monaco  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Morocco  Ba1 
8.60%
2.50%
Netherlands  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
New Zealand  Aa2 
6.75%
0.65%
Nicaragua  B2 
11.60%
5.50%
Norway  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Oman  Baa2 
7.40%
1.30%
Pakistan  Caa1 
13.60%
7.50%
Panama  Baa1 
7.30%
1.20%
Papua New Guinea  B1 
10.60%
4.50%
Paraguay  B2 
11.60%
5.50%
Peru  Ba3 
10.10%
4.00%
Philippines  Ba1 
8.60%
2.50%
Poland  Baa3 
7.55%
1.45%
Portugal  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Qatar  Baa2 
7.40%
1.30%
Romania  B3 
12.60%
6.50%
Russia  B3 
12.60%
6.50%
San Marino  Aa3 
6.80%
0.70%
Sark  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Saudi Arabia  Baa3 
7.55%
1.45%
Singapore  Aa1 
6.70%
0.60%
Slovakia  Ba1
8.60%
2.50%
Slovenia  A3 
7.05%
0.95%
South Africa  Baa3 
7.55%
1.45%
Spain  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Sweden  Aa2 
6.75%
0.65%
Switzerland  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Taiwan  Aa3 
6.80%
0.70%
Thailand  Ba1 
8.60%
2.50%
Trinidad & Tobago  Ba1 
8.60%
2.50%
Tunisia  Baa3 
7.55%
1.45%
Turkey  B1 
10.60%
4.50%
Turkmenistan  B2 
11.60%
5.50%
Ukraine  B3 
12.60%
6.50%
United Arab Emirates  A2 
7.00%
0.90%
United Kingdom  Aaa 
6.10%
0.00%
Uruguay  Baa3 
7.55%
1.45%
Venezuela  B2 
11.60%
5.50%
Vietnam  B1 
10.60%
4.50%

The correspondences between the bond ratings and the above risk premiums are given in the table below.

Risk Premiums by Rating Class (in Basis Points)
Rating Country Risk Premium for Corporate Bonds Country Risk Premium for Government Bonds
Aaa 0 0
Aa1 60 75
Aa2 65 85
Aa3 70 90
A1 80 100
A2 90 125
A3 85 135
Baa1 120 150
Baa2 130 175
Baa3 145 200
Ba1 250 325
Ba2 300 400
Ba3 400 525
B1 450 600
B2 550 750
B3 650 850
Caa 750 900
Based upon information from Moody's and Bondonline.com



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