San José State University
Thayer Watkins
Silicon Valley
& Tornado Alley

The Profile of Global Temperature
Before and After the PeakTemperature
for the El Nino Years

The usual promoters of the notion of catastrophic global warming are strongly publicizing that each month's global temperature in the past years has been a record high for that month. These promoters do not mention that 2016 is an El Niño year, thereby demonstrating that they do not have ounce of intellectual integrity,

An El Niño event is not just a single spike in temperature; it has a definite profile or pattern over time. Take for example the El Niño year of 1998.

What is shown is the anomalies of the global temperature of the lower atmosphere for the period of time from twelve months before the peak temperature to twelve months after. Temperature anomalies are the deviation of a temperature from a long term average.

The peak monthly temperature occured in April of 1998. There is anirregular rise to the peak and an irregular decline from the peak.

The data comes the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and is based upon satellite readings of the whole atmosphere. Surface temperature estimates have to cope with the fact that 70 percent of the Earth's surface is ocean and there only a very limited number of readings from ships and buoys. The UAH figures are more accurate.

The question is whether the profile for the 1998 El Niño is characteristic or not of all El Niños. The answer is yes. Here is the data for the 2016 El Niño compared with that of the 1998 event. The peak monthly temperature occured in February of 2016.

The patterns are close but not identical. The 1998 and 2016 were notably strong and nearyl equal in peak temperature. The figure below compare the weaker Niño event of 2010 with the two strong ones of 1998 and 2016.

Remarkably the pattern for 2010 differs from those of the other two events primarily in the level of the peak temperature.

For the 1998 and the 2010 events the global temperature 12 months after the peak returned to the level it was 12 months before the peak. This means that the temperature rises before and at the peak were 100 percent due to the El Niño event. The means that the recent peaks in monthly temperatures are solely due to El Niño. The ballyhooing of those monthly temperature records by global warming alarmists is a conscious hoax. That is to say that the global warming alarmists are not so stupid and ignorant as to believe the records are not due to El Niño. They must be quite conscious that they are charlatans.


There is a year or longer buildup to the peak temperature of an Niño event that has nothing to do with any secular trend in global temperature. Likewise there is a year or longer period of decline from the peak temperature. It is completely inappropriate to connect the temperature changes associated with an Niño event with global warming, human caused or otherwise. Those that do so are charlatans who know full well that they are lying.

HOME PAGE OF applet-magic
HOME PAGE OF Thayer Watkins,