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Gems, such as diamonds, constitute speculative commodities. This is
a very minor market but it illustrates some economic principles and it
therefore worth noting. In particular, the problems in the market for
a honhomogeneous commodity such as gems illustrates how significant is the
homogeneity of the products in the financial markets.
Gem quality and value of the most narrowly defined category of
gems are still uncertain. The value of a particular stone is subject to great
uncertainty. Trained specialists will set differing values on the same
stone. The following story is told of an attempt to document the variability of
valuations among trained professionals. A ring with a half carat diamond was
given to about twenty professionals for appraisal. Not only did the
valuations differ significantly but it was found that somewhere in the course
of the valuations a quarter carat stone
was substituted for the original half carat stone.
De Beers copes with the problem of not being able to establish a consensus
valuation for a particular diamond by having their appraisers value a
large collections of stones, called sightings. The differences in individual
stones tend to average out and hence there is much less uncertainty about
the average stone value in a sighting. These collections of stones are offered to
commercial buyers on a take-or-leave it basis at the price set by the company appraisers.
For an ordinary investor the risk associated with the fluctuations in
the value of assets is compounded for investment in gems by the uncertainty
about the quality of the gems.
It is notable that the value of gemstones is not strictly proportional to size;
instead the value per carat is higher for the larger gems.
The functional
relation between value and weight is nonlinear. This nonlinearity is a reflection
of the public's prizing of larger stones versus smaller stones. For example, the
value could be proportional to the square of the weight. This would mean
that a two carat diamond would be worth four times as much as a one carat
diamond. Thus two one-carat diamonds would have only one half the value
of a single two-carat diamond.
In the diamond operations along the Skeleton Coast of Namibia a large
porportion of the revenue comes from the rare large diamonds found. The
company wanted to give the workers an extra incentive to search diligently
for the larger stones so it gave them a bonus for finding stones above a
certain size. This policy was implemented by the supervisors having a
box with a hole in it for sizing. If a worker found a diamond that he thought would
qualify for the bonus he took it to his supervisor who checked to see if
it would go through the hole. If it did not then the worker got the bonus.
The workers soon realized that if they found a really big diamond it might
be broken in half and each half would qualify for the bonus. This was
a disaster for the company because the combined value of the two halves
would have only one half
the value of the larger stone. The company eventually corrected the incentive
scheme.
Since diamonds of gem quality are very valuable and diamonds are simply
a form of ordinary carbon there has long been an interest in synthesizing
diamonds. The basic method of synthesizing diamonds is to dissolve carbon
in molten iron and then quench the iron so the outside hardens and puts
great pressure on the molten center with the dissolved carbon to produce crystals of
carbon; i.e., diamonds. The General Electric Company has produced small
synthetic diamonds for industrial purposes since about 1960. Now larger, jewelery-quality
diamonds are produced synthetically.
Emeralds are also produced synthetically on a commercial basis. The
developer of the process for producing synthetic emeralds was Carroll Chatham
of San Francisco. As a young man Carroll Chatham became interested in
producing diamonds synthetically. Chatham began experiments of using
liquid air to rapidly cool molten iron within which a maximum amount of
carbon had been dissolved.
Dropping molten iron into liquid air produced virtually an explosion.
After hearing a few of these explosive experiments Chatham's neighbors
became apprehensive. In a later era they would have congered up the image of having
a teenage mad scientist in their midst. Chatham decided to switch from synthesizing diamonds
to synthesizing emeralds. He was a brilliant individual who ultimately graduated from the
California Institute of Technology (Cal Tech) in Pasadena.
In 1939 he was successful in his quest to produce emeralds synthetically. He was
astute economically as well as technically.
Over the years since commercial
operations began in 1945 Chatham has strictly limited production of emeralds by his secret process
to prevent oversaturating
the market and driving the price down excessively. A Chatham
emerald sells for less than a comparable natural emerald but it is still a
very valuable item. Initially the only way to tell whether an emerald was
natural or
synthetic was to heat the stone in question to a high temperature. At a high temperature
a natural emerald shatters because
of natural inclusions of water. A Chatham emerald would not shatter because the inclusions
are much more limited.
There are now nondestructive methods of distinguishing natural and
Chatham emeralds.
Rubies have long been synthesized by a process that is well known. Auguste Verneuil revealed
his process in 1902. He had developed it sometime previously. His process is known as the
flame fusion method. A ruby
is a crytal of corundum (aluminum oxide Al2O3)
which has additives which give it its color. For rubies the additive is
chromium ions. When the additive is iron and titanium ions the gem is a sapphire.
Rubies and sapphires are produced synthetically by the Verneuil process by allowing
aluminum oxide dust doped with the
right ingredients for color to fall through a high temperature flame created by burning
hydrogen in pure oxygen.
The melted aluminum builds up into a rod called a boule which can then
be cut into any form desired. Synthetic ruby material produced by this method is
relative cheap compared to natural rubies. Rubies produced by this method do not have the same crystal
structure as natural rubies. Another more expensive method will produce
crystalline rubies but the producers add elements that distinguish them
from natural rubies.
It was not until 1909 that Verneuil produced blue sapphires using his method. Although it was
know that iron and titanium were responsible for the blue color Verneuil did not achieve
success until he discovered that the iron ion has be in the ferric (valence=+3) state rather
than the ferrous (valence=+2) state.
In a competitive market in which buyers are only concerned about the physical
characteristics the price would be driven down to the level of the lower
cost method of production, natural or synthetic. In an imperfect market such
as that for diamonds the De Beers cartel could bring the price down to a
level below which it would be unprofitable to produce synthetic diamonds. But
so long as the production of synthetic diamonds is limited to a small share of the
market it is better for
the cartel to let the market absorb the limited number of synthetic gems
than to price the synthetizers out of the market. For more on this topic see
Limit Pricing Oligopolies
If ever the cost of
synthetizing diamonds became less than the cost of finding new diamond mines
and mining the diamonds the cartels days might be numbered; i.e., the number of
days it would take to sell off the cartel's inventory of diamonds.
But, as the case of rubies indicates, there can be an irrational pricing
of natural source gems above the price of physically identical synthetic
gems.
The case of zircons is relevant. Zircons are found in nature. Originally they were
found near the town of Matara in Sri Lanka and were thought to be diamonds. They were known
as Matara diamonds. Their index of
refraction is not much less than that of diamonds and therefore they had the sparkle, the fire,
associated with diamonds. Presumably during the period when zircons were considered
diamonds their price was not much different from diamonds. Later a chemist determined that
zircon contained the element zirconium and were therefore not diamonds. The status of
zircons fell to the point where they are identified with the notion of a cheap, inferior
substitute.
This phenomenon fits perfectly with Thorstein Veblen's perception of the
sociological component of consumer choice. People who consider themselves above the middle class
demonstrate their class status by paying for an artificial distinction that middle class
budgeters would not pay for. But there is a bit of a risk to invest in natural-source gems based
upon a component of the public indefinitely maintaining an irrational or Veblenian attitude toward
natural versus
synthetic gems.
Value and Size
Synthetic Gems
Most gems can be produced synthetically. These synthetics may be chemically
indistinguishable from the natural gems but usually there are some physically
differences, such as imperfections in natural gems, which distinguishes them.
Always the natural stones command a much higher market price than the synthetic
stones. Thus the market valuation is not based upon intrinsic qualities of
the items.
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